Shadow Case 开箱公平吗

游戏内武器箱，Valve 官方概率

−$1.95 每次开箱平均亏损

头奖 ★ Shadow Daggers | Fade · $133.04 · 每次开箱 0.02% 的概率

$100 会变成什么样

场景：用 $100 的全部预算开 25 次箱子，再把所有掉落按市场价卖掉。结果如下：

够开多少次 25

$36.74 十次里有八次：$21.55 到 $109.77

盈利概率 14%

翻倍概率 0.50%

开出头奖的概率 0.50%

29 件物品

物品	概率	市场价格
★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade	0.02%	$133.04
★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter	0.02%	$95.23
★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened	0.02%	$85.39
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed	0.32%	$83.85
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil	0.32%	$71.06
★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web	0.02%	$70.38
★ Shadow Daggers	0.02%	$61.25
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel	0.02%	$60.26
★ Shadow Daggers \| Stained	0.02%	$55.66
★ Shadow Daggers \| Night	0.02%	$48.84
★ Shadow Daggers \| Scorched	0.02%	$44.25
★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked	0.02%	$43.84
★ Shadow Daggers \| Forest DDPAT	0.02%	$39.87
★ Shadow Daggers \| Boreal Forest	0.02%	$38.68
★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh	0.02%	$38.13
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty	1.1%	$20.47
SSG 08 \| Big Iron	1.1%	$13.88
G3SG1 \| Flux	1.1%	$9.33
Galil AR \| Stone Cold	4.0%	$3.98
P250 \| Wingshot	4.0%	$1.97
MP7 \| Special Delivery	4.0%	$1.90
M249 \| Nebula Crusader	4.0%	$1.60
FAMAS \| Survivor Z	11%	$1.07
Glock-18 \| Wraiths	11%	$1.02
MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core	11%	$0.59
Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons	11%	$0.54
MAC-10 \| Rangeen	11%	$0.51
SCAR-20 \| Green Marine	11%	$0.34
XM1014 \| Scumbria	11%	$0.30