Chroma 3 Case: 47% RTP, 13% chance to profit — Skinory
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$ usd
Chroma 3 Case

Return from opening Chroma 3 Case

In-game case, Valve odds Opening price$5.53
F Grade
47% Payout
−$2.93 Average loss per opening

Top prize ★ Karambit | Doppler · $1 197.08 · 0.0087% chance per opening

What happens to $100

Scenario: open the case 18 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:

Openings it buys 18
Left after 18 openings $19.46 8 times out of 10: between $9.22 and $126.16
Chance to end ahead 13%
Chance to double 3.3%
Chance at the top prize 0.16%
Openings until zero 22

Contents and odds

47 items
ItemOddsMarket price
★ Karambit | Doppler0.0087%$1 197.08
★ Karambit | Marble Fade0.0087%$980.48
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler0.0087%$861.92
★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth0.0087%$822.61
★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade0.0087%$704.06
★ Karambit | Damascus Steel0.0087%$593.68
★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth0.0087%$582.96
★ Karambit | Ultraviolet0.0087%$493.59
★ Karambit | Rust Coat0.0087%$440.48
★ M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel0.0087%$420.67
★ Bayonet | Doppler0.0087%$363.60
★ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet0.0087%$349.79
★ M9 Bayonet | Rust Coat0.0087%$313.86
★ Bayonet | Marble Fade0.0087%$311.33
★ Flip Knife | Doppler0.0087%$293.02
★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth0.0087%$258.02
★ Flip Knife | Marble Fade0.0087%$240.87
★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth0.0087%$193.18
★ Bayonet | Damascus Steel0.0087%$162.87
★ Bayonet | Ultraviolet0.0087%$144.71
★ Flip Knife | Ultraviolet0.0087%$127.17
★ Flip Knife | Damascus Steel0.0087%$126.28
★ Bayonet | Rust Coat0.0087%$119.63
★ Flip Knife | Rust Coat0.0087%$116.98
M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire0.32%$116.42
PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis0.32%$113.29
★ Gut Knife | Doppler0.0087%$112.09
★ Gut Knife | Marble Fade0.0087%$105.33
★ Gut Knife | Tiger Tooth0.0087%$86.61
★ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel0.0087%$55.92

The calculation uses current market prices and published odds. It is a statistical estimate; an individual opening can differ.

Open in the simulator Case page

Ranked 20 of 42 CS2 cases by payout

Cases with a similar payout

Chroma Case Chroma Case Payout 48% · Profit chance 11% F Winter Offensive Weapon Case Winter Offensive Weapon Case Payout 47% · Profit chance 7.4% F Operation Phoenix Weapon Case Operation Phoenix Weapon Case Payout 47% · Profit chance 11% F Operation Breakout Weapon Case Operation Breakout Weapon Case Payout 47% · Profit chance 8.3% F Shattered Web Case Shattered Web Case Payout 46% · Profit chance 8.2% E Falchion Case Falchion Case Payout 46% · Profit chance 5.7% E

Questions

Why is the Chroma 3 Case payout below 100%?

The case and key cost $5.53, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 47% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.

Where do the prices come from?

The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.

What does “openings until zero” mean?

The model sells each drop and opens again while the balance covers the next case. For Chroma 3 Case, the median balance falls below the opening price after about 22 openings.

What if I get lucky?

Over 18 openings the chance to pull ★ Karambit | Doppler is 0.2%, and the chance to double the budget is 3.3%.