Return from opening CS:GO Weapon Case 3

In-game case, Valve odds

−$4.58 Average loss per opening

Top prize ★ Karambit | Fade · $1 695.40 · 0.004% chance per opening

What happens to $100

Scenario: open the case 6 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:

Openings it buys 6

$60.76 8 times out of 10: between $43.49 and $107.89

Chance to end ahead 12%

Chance to double 0.95%

Chance at the top prize 0.02%

Contents and odds

77 items

Item	Odds	Market price
★ Karambit \| Fade	0.004%	$1 695.40
★ Karambit	0.004%	$970.11
★ Karambit \| Slaughter	0.004%	$955.75
★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade	0.004%	$888.17
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened	0.004%	$742.83
★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter	0.004%	$706.59
★ Karambit \| Blue Steel	0.004%	$706.40
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web	0.004%	$694.43
★ M9 Bayonet	0.004%	$666.96
★ Karambit \| Stained	0.004%	$530.62
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web	0.004%	$504.49
★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened	0.004%	$487.50
★ Karambit \| Night	0.004%	$481.37
★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel	0.004%	$471.89
★ Karambit \| Scorched	0.004%	$412.28
★ Karambit \| Urban Masked	0.004%	$406.77
★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest	0.004%	$397.40
★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT	0.004%	$378.49
★ M9 Bayonet \| Stained	0.004%	$373.00
★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh	0.004%	$364.93
★ M9 Bayonet \| Night	0.004%	$336.86
★ Bayonet \| Fade	0.004%	$329.44
★ Bayonet \| Slaughter	0.004%	$310.03
★ M9 Bayonet \| Urban Masked	0.004%	$298.25
★ Flip Knife \| Fade	0.004%	$291.25
★ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched	0.004%	$288.75
★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest	0.004%	$276.31
★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT	0.004%	$274.72
★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh	0.004%	$273.92
★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter	0.004%	$264.83

The calculation uses current market prices and published odds. It is a statistical estimate; an individual opening can differ.

Open in the simulator Case page

Ranked 1 of 42 CS2 cases by payout

Cases with a similar payout

eSports 2013 Winter Case Payout 66% · Profit chance 14% D

Glove Case Payout 61% · Profit chance 7.5% E

CS:GO Weapon Case 2 Payout 60% · Profit chance 10% E

Questions

Why is the CS:GO Weapon Case 3 payout below 100%?

The case and key cost $14.34, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 68% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.

Where do the prices come from?

The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.

What does “openings until zero” mean?

The model sells each drop and opens again while the balance covers the next case. For CS:GO Weapon Case 3, the median balance falls below the opening price after about 15 openings.

What if I get lucky?

Over 6 openings the chance to pull ★ Karambit | Fade is 0.0%, and the chance to double the budget is 0.9%.