Spectrum 2 Case: 43% RTP, 14% chance to profit — Skinory
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$ usd
Spectrum 2 Case

Return from opening Spectrum 2 Case

In-game case, Valve odds Opening price$5.11
F Grade
43% Payout
−$2.91 Average loss per opening

Top prize ★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler · $1 987.06 · 0.0087% chance per opening

What happens to $100

Scenario: open the case 19 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:

Openings it buys 19
Left after 19 openings $20.52 8 times out of 10: between $10.45 and $113.28
Chance to end ahead 14%
Chance to double 1.8%
Chance at the top prize 0.16%
Openings until zero 23

Contents and odds

47 items
ItemOddsMarket price
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler0.0087%$1 987.06
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade0.0087%$1 281.08
★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth0.0087%$1 035.34
★ Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steel0.0087%$707.93
★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet0.0087%$563.68
★ Butterfly Knife | Rust Coat0.0087%$497.62
★ Falchion Knife | Doppler0.0087%$284.33
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler0.0087%$269.84
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler0.0087%$234.37
★ Huntsman Knife | Marble Fade0.0087%$169.01
★ Falchion Knife | Marble Fade0.0087%$161.31
★ Bowie Knife | Marble Fade0.0087%$142.20
★ Huntsman Knife | Tiger Tooth0.0087%$130.27
★ Falchion Knife | Tiger Tooth0.0087%$126.46
★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler0.0087%$124.04
★ Bowie Knife | Tiger Tooth0.0087%$110.23
AK-47 | The Empress0.32%$101.14
P250 | See Ya Later0.32%$96.87
★ Falchion Knife | Damascus Steel0.0087%$90.48
★ Huntsman Knife | Damascus Steel0.0087%$86.13
★ Shadow Daggers | Marble Fade0.0087%$82.70
★ Bowie Knife | Damascus Steel0.0087%$74.79
★ Falchion Knife | Ultraviolet0.0087%$73.02
★ Shadow Daggers | Tiger Tooth0.0087%$63.65
★ Huntsman Knife | Ultraviolet0.0087%$62.45
★ Bowie Knife | Ultraviolet0.0087%$60.16
★ Falchion Knife | Rust Coat0.0087%$50.49
★ Shadow Daggers | Damascus Steel0.0087%$48.48
★ Huntsman Knife | Rust Coat0.0087%$46.46
★ Shadow Daggers | Ultraviolet0.0087%$44.83

The calculation uses current market prices and published odds. It is a statistical estimate; an individual opening can differ.

Open in the simulator Case page

Ranked 28 of 42 CS2 cases by payout

Cases with a similar payout

Huntsman Weapon Case Huntsman Weapon Case Payout 45% · Profit chance 6.0% F Prisma 2 Case Prisma 2 Case Payout 44% · Profit chance 7.1% F Gallery Case Gallery Case Payout 43% · Profit chance 8.6% F Operation Riptide Case Operation Riptide Case Payout 43% · Profit chance 5.8% F Snakebite Case Snakebite Case Payout 43% · Profit chance 6.2% F CS20 Case CS20 Case Payout 40% · Profit chance 7.8% F

Questions

Why is the Spectrum 2 Case payout below 100%?

The case and key cost $5.11, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 43% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.

Where do the prices come from?

The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.

What does “openings until zero” mean?

The model sells each drop and opens again while the balance covers the next case. For Spectrum 2 Case, the median balance falls below the opening price after about 23 openings.

What if I get lucky?

Over 19 openings the chance to pull ★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler is 0.2%, and the chance to double the budget is 1.8%.