Return from opening Gamma 2 Case

In-game case, Valve odds

−$2.59 Average loss per opening

Top prize ★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler · $1 555.97 · 0.0087% chance per opening

What happens to $100

Scenario: open the case 19 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:

Openings it buys 19

$21.24 8 times out of 10: between $10.01 and $128.37

Chance to end ahead 15%

Chance to double 3.3%

Chance at the top prize 0.16%

Contents and odds

47 items

Item	Odds	Market price
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler	0.0087%	$1 555.97
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler	0.0087%	$1 117.40
★ Karambit \| Autotronic	0.0087%	$912.39
★ Karambit \| Lore	0.0087%	$668.37
★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic	0.0087%	$663.07
★ Karambit \| Black Laminate	0.0087%	$638.79
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore	0.0087%	$588.98
★ Karambit \| Freehand	0.0087%	$495.29
★ Karambit \| Bright Water	0.0087%	$472.11
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler	0.0087%	$456.53
★ M9 Bayonet \| Black Laminate	0.0087%	$453.36
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler	0.0087%	$368.93
★ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand	0.0087%	$360.19
★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water	0.0087%	$333.53
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic	0.0087%	$275.94
★ Bayonet \| Lore	0.0087%	$255.68
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic	0.0087%	$178.04
★ Flip Knife \| Lore	0.0087%	$172.63
★ Bayonet \| Freehand	0.0087%	$161.76
★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate	0.0087%	$155.58
★ Bayonet \| Bright Water	0.0087%	$149.98
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler	0.0087%	$145.85
★ Flip Knife \| Freehand	0.0087%	$124.54
★ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate	0.0087%	$123.98
★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water	0.0087%	$121.44
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution	0.32%	$117.41
FAMAS \| Roll Cage	0.32%	$107.53
★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic	0.0087%	$95.98
★ Gut Knife \| Lore	0.0087%	$84.31
★ Gut Knife \| Freehand	0.0087%	$57.72

The calculation uses current market prices and published odds. It is a statistical estimate; an individual opening can differ.

Open in the simulator Case page

Ranked 11 of 42 CS2 cases by payout

Cases with a similar payout

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Horizon Case Payout 50% · Profit chance 7.6% D

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Questions

Why is the Gamma 2 Case payout below 100%?

The case and key cost $5.20, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 50% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.

Where do the prices come from?

The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.

What does “openings until zero” mean?

The model sells each drop and opens again while the balance covers the next case. For Gamma 2 Case, the median balance falls below the opening price after about 23 openings.

What if I get lucky?

Over 19 openings the chance to pull ★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler is 0.2%, and the chance to double the budget is 3.3%.