Return from opening Chroma 2 Case

In-game case, Valve odds

−$2.92 Average loss per opening

Top prize ★ Karambit | Doppler · $1 203.15 · 0.0087% chance per opening

What happens to $100

Scenario: open the case 17 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:

Openings it buys 17

$23.13 8 times out of 10: between $13.16 and $130.60

Chance to end ahead 13%

Chance to double 3.1%

Chance at the top prize 0.15%

Contents and odds

45 items

Item	Odds	Market price
★ Karambit \| Doppler	0.0087%	$1 203.15
★ Karambit \| Marble Fade	0.0087%	$973.79
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler	0.0087%	$861.05
★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth	0.0087%	$812.85
★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade	0.0087%	$708.08
★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel	0.0087%	$591.23
★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth	0.0087%	$589.05
★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet	0.0087%	$494.61
★ Karambit \| Rust Coat	0.0087%	$440.86
★ M9 Bayonet \| Damascus Steel	0.0087%	$420.42
★ Bayonet \| Doppler	0.0087%	$363.11
★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet	0.0087%	$349.60
★ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat	0.0087%	$317.20
★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade	0.0087%	$312.94
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler	0.0087%	$293.74
★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth	0.0087%	$259.29
★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade	0.0087%	$240.11
★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth	0.0087%	$193.88
★ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel	0.0087%	$163.52
★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet	0.0087%	$142.98
★ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet	0.0087%	$128.54
★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel	0.0087%	$126.18
★ Bayonet \| Rust Coat	0.0087%	$120.37
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast	0.32%	$117.63
★ Flip Knife \| Rust Coat	0.0087%	$114.01
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider	0.32%	$112.97
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler	0.0087%	$111.88
★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade	0.0087%	$105.40
★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth	0.0087%	$86.90
★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel	0.0087%	$55.85

The calculation uses current market prices and published odds. It is a statistical estimate; an individual opening can differ.

Open in the simulator Case page

Ranked 14 of 42 CS2 cases by payout

Cases with a similar payout

Horizon Case Payout 50% · Profit chance 7.5% E

Gamma 2 Case Payout 50% · Profit chance 15% E

Prisma Case Payout 50% · Profit chance 8.4% F

Revolver Case Payout 50% · Profit chance 13% F

Operation Broken Fang Case Payout 49% · Profit chance 6.9% F

Winter Offensive Weapon Case Payout 49% · Profit chance 7.8% F

Questions

Why is the Chroma 2 Case payout below 100%?

The case and key cost $5.83, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 50% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.

Where do the prices come from?

The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.

What does “openings until zero” mean?

The model sells each drop and opens again while the balance covers the next case. For Chroma 2 Case, the median balance falls below the opening price after about 22 openings.

What if I get lucky?

Over 17 openings the chance to pull ★ Karambit | Doppler is 0.1%, and the chance to double the budget is 3.1%.