Return from opening Operation Broken Fang Case

In-game case, Valve odds

−$3.95 Average loss per opening

Top prize ★ Sport Gloves | Nocts · $579.83 · 0.01% chance per opening

One opening: payout probabilities

In-game case, Valve odds

Chance to break even ≈ 4.09% A drop worth at least $7.62

Risk of not breaking even ≈ 95.91%

≥ x1 $7.62 ≈ 4.09%

≥ x1.4 $10.67 ≈ 4.09%

≥ x2 $15.24 ≈ 4.09%

≥ x5 $38.10 ≈ 0.90%

≥ x10 $76.20 ≈ 0.47%

Each bar shows the chance of a drop worth at least the indicated multiple of the opening price, before selling fees. Values use market prices where available, otherwise estimates. The thresholds overlap; their probabilities do not add up to 100%.

For in-game cases, item values average wear and StatTrak variants, so these payout probabilities are model estimates.

What happens to $100

Scenario: open the case 13 times with the $100 budget and value the drops using this report’s prices, before selling fees.

Openings it buys 13

$29.95 8 times out of 10: between $17.55 and $78.60

Chance to end ahead 6.4%

Chance to double 4.5%

Chance at the top prize 0.14%

Contents and odds

41 items

Item	Odds	Market price
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts	0.01%	$579.83
★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot	0.01%	$378.28
★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard	0.01%	$284.02
M4A1-S \| Printstream	0.32%	$220.10
★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh	0.01%	$179.16
★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike	0.01%	$167.89
★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade	0.01%	$161.53
★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie	0.01%	$138.80
★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game	0.01%	$131.82
★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent	0.01%	$131.74
★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION!	0.01%	$120.86
★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure	0.01%	$113.71
★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out	0.01%	$107.53
★ Specialist Gloves \| Lt. Commander	0.01%	$104.79
★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line	0.01%	$78.90
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade	0.01%	$72.95
★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red	0.01%	$66.61
★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar	0.01%	$55.27
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged	0.01%	$51.18
★ Hand Wraps \| Constrictor	0.01%	$48.68
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded	0.01%	$46.43
★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company	0.01%	$42.04
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point	0.01%	$41.90
★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe	0.01%	$41.67
★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh	0.01%	$39.19
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir	0.32%	$38.65
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale	1.1%	$32.04
USP-S \| Monster Mashup	1.1%	$27.20
M4A4 \| Cyber Security	1.1%	$23.88
AWP \| Exoskeleton	3.2%	$6.35

The calculation uses current market prices and published odds. It is a statistical estimate; an individual opening can differ.

Open in the simulator Case page

Ranked 17 of 42 CS2 cases by payout

Cases with a similar payout

Operation Breakout Weapon Case Payout 49% · Profit chance 8.8% F

Prisma Case Payout 49% · Profit chance 7.3% F

Chroma 2 Case Payout 48% · Profit chance 13% F

Operation Phoenix Weapon Case Payout 48% · Profit chance 11% F

Revolver Case Payout 48% · Profit chance 11% F

Winter Offensive Weapon Case Payout 47% · Profit chance 7.3% F

Questions

Why is the Operation Broken Fang Case payout below 100%?

The case and key cost $7.62, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 48% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.

Where do the prices come from?

The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.

What does “openings until zero” mean?

The model sells each drop and opens again while the balance covers the next case. For Operation Broken Fang Case, the median balance falls below the opening price after about 18 openings.

What if I get lucky?

Over 13 openings the chance to pull ★ Sport Gloves | Nocts is 0.1%, and the chance to double the budget is 4.5%.