Spectrum Case: 46% RTP, 13% chance to profit — Skinory
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$ usd
Spectrum Case

Return from opening Spectrum Case

In-game case, Valve odds Opening price$5.63
F Grade
46% Payout
−$3.05 Average loss per opening

Top prize ★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler · $1 987.74 · 0.0087% chance per opening

What happens to $100

Scenario: open the case 17 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:

Openings it buys 17
Left after 17 openings $24.59 8 times out of 10: between $13.56 and $118.76
Chance to end ahead 13%
Chance to double 2.5%
Chance at the top prize 0.15%
Openings until zero 22

Contents and odds

47 items
ItemOddsMarket price
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler0.0087%$1 987.74
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade0.0087%$1 285.36
★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth0.0087%$1 036.32
★ Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steel0.0087%$714.20
★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet0.0087%$567.32
★ Butterfly Knife | Rust Coat0.0087%$498.64
★ Falchion Knife | Doppler0.0087%$280.94
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler0.0087%$273.31
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler0.0087%$234.37
★ Huntsman Knife | Marble Fade0.0087%$168.59
★ Falchion Knife | Marble Fade0.0087%$162.88
★ Bowie Knife | Marble Fade0.0087%$143.41
AK-47 | Bloodsport0.32%$136.25
★ Huntsman Knife | Tiger Tooth0.0087%$130.27
★ Falchion Knife | Tiger Tooth0.0087%$126.44
★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler0.0087%$124.38
★ Bowie Knife | Tiger Tooth0.0087%$112.31
USP-S | Neo-Noir0.32%$97.54
★ Falchion Knife | Damascus Steel0.0087%$90.88
★ Huntsman Knife | Damascus Steel0.0087%$85.94
★ Shadow Daggers | Marble Fade0.0087%$82.92
★ Bowie Knife | Damascus Steel0.0087%$75.47
★ Falchion Knife | Ultraviolet0.0087%$72.90
★ Shadow Daggers | Tiger Tooth0.0087%$63.66
★ Huntsman Knife | Ultraviolet0.0087%$62.05
★ Bowie Knife | Ultraviolet0.0087%$60.53
★ Falchion Knife | Rust Coat0.0087%$50.31
★ Shadow Daggers | Damascus Steel0.0087%$48.32
★ Huntsman Knife | Rust Coat0.0087%$46.18
★ Shadow Daggers | Ultraviolet0.0087%$45.54

The calculation uses current market prices and published odds. It is a statistical estimate; an individual opening can differ.

Open in the simulator Case page

Ranked 24 of 42 CS2 cases by payout

Cases with a similar payout

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Questions

Why is the Spectrum Case payout below 100%?

The case and key cost $5.63, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 46% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.

Where do the prices come from?

The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.

What does “openings until zero” mean?

The model sells each drop and opens again while the balance covers the next case. For Spectrum Case, the median balance falls below the opening price after about 22 openings.

What if I get lucky?

Over 17 openings the chance to pull ★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler is 0.1%, and the chance to double the budget is 2.5%.