Return from opening Operation Phoenix Weapon Case
Top prize ★ Karambit | Fade · $1 683.38 · 0.0039% chance per opening
One opening: payout probabilities
In-game case, Valve odds
Each bar shows the chance of a drop worth at least the indicated multiple of the opening price, before selling fees. Values use market prices where available, otherwise estimates. The thresholds overlap; their probabilities do not add up to 100%.
For in-game cases, item values average wear and StatTrak variants, so these payout probabilities are model estimates.
What happens to $100
Scenario: open the case 17 times with the $100 budget and value the drops using this report’s prices, before selling fees.
Your recent drops
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Next opening of Operation Phoenix Weapon Case: use the payout probabilities above. Previous drops do not change the odds of an independent opening.
Contents and odds
78 items
The calculation uses current market prices and published odds. It is a statistical estimate; an individual opening can differ.
Ranked 18 of 42 CS2 cases by payout
Cases with a similar payout
Questions
Why is the Operation Phoenix Weapon Case payout below 100%?
The case and key cost $5.67, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 47% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.
Where do the prices come from?
The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.
What does “openings until zero” mean?
The model sells each drop and opens again while the balance covers the next case. For Operation Phoenix Weapon Case, the median balance falls below the opening price after about 22 openings.
What if I get lucky?
Over 17 openings the chance to pull ★ Karambit | Fade is 0.1%, and the chance to double the budget is 2.5%.