Explore the contents
Expand the odds table to see every item, its chance and average price.

Virtual opening with real drop prices. Not gambling — nothing is charged or awarded.
Space or Enter opens
Open a treasure to see the history of every drop here
The simulator sells and buys nothing. Prices are the best current market offers, and items without a reliable market price count as zero. Odds are fixed and never depend on earlier results.
Expand the odds table to see every item, its chance and average price.
Switch between Valve ratios and the other RTP modes to see how the chances of expensive and inexpensive drops change.
Run ×10 or ×50 and compare spending, drop value and session RTP. A short series can differ substantially from the model’s expected return.
Hallowed Chest of the Diretide holds 64 items and currently costs $2.53 to open. At the simulator’s fixed odds the average drop is worth 61% of that: of every 100 spent, 61 comes back.
Valve’s announcement for the chest gives relative odds only: how likely each tier is compared with the next, and one chance in a hundred thousand for the cosmically rare tier. From these Skinory derives Tier 1 80.13%, Tier 2 16.03%, Tier 3 3.205% and Tier 4 0.641% of openings, and 0.001% for the cosmically rare tier, with items in a tier equally likely. The chest opens with a $2.49 key from the Dota 2 store, so one opening costs the chest plus the key.